Bitcoin (BTC) Hits -16% Loss: Is the Bottom Finally In?

Bitcoin’s price has dropped to levels last seen in April 2025. The asset briefly fell below $90,000, as traders reacted to continued downside pressure.

On-chain data and accumulation trends are now showing signals that, in the past, have appeared near market lows.

Losses Deepen for Short-Term Holders

According to analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin’s realized loss margin has fallen to -16%. This metric tracks the average percentage loss taken when coins are sold. In previous cycles, a drop below -12% has often marked the beginning of a recovery. Bitcoin is now well below that level.

The cryptocurrency is trading above $91,500 at press time, while the realized price stands near $114,000. This difference shows that many holders are selling at a loss. Similar setups in 2023 and 2024 were followed by price recoveries.

Large Wallets Are Accumulating

As Bitcoin dropped toward $89,000, long-term holders increased their buying. Data from CryptoQuant, shared by Crypto Seth, shows the 30-day demand from permanent holders is now at its highest level ever. These wallets rarely move their holdings, which suggests continued accumulation during the decline.

Similarly, El Salvador bought more than 1,000 BTC during the decline, increasing its total to about 7,500 BTC. The country’s Bitcoin Office confirmed the $100 million purchase, making it the largest single-day buy since it began accumulating.

Price Tests Key Support Range

Bitcoin is now sitting near a historical support area between $90,000 and $93,000. This zone supported the price action between November 2024 and February 2025, and again in late April. According to Rekt Capital, a rebound depends on whether this area continues to hold.

After falling below $91,000, BTC quickly bounced to about $93,600, showing some buying interest. Trader Michaël van de Poppe said,

“I don’t know whether this is the low or it hits $85K, but the arguments are lining up.”

He noted that the CME gap has now closed and that short-term moving averages have diverged sharply from the current price. He also pointed out that the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 11, the lowest reading since the Luna crash. This level often reflects strong panic across the market.

In past cycles, Bitcoin topped in 2017 and 2021 before falling over the course of 12 months. Both declines ranged from -77% to -84%. If October 2025 was the peak of the current cycle, a similar timeline could place the next bottom around October 2026.

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