If you’ve been in the crypto industry for a while, you’re undoubtedly aware of market cycles.

They tend to revolve around Bitcoin’s halving, which usually acts as a catalyst for an incoming bull run. Many have expressed doubts about this theory, but so far it appears to be playing out incredibly accurately.

Let’s dive in and see if we can estimate when this downturn could end, taking into account previous market behavior.

What the Previous Cycles Suggest

The first reference point is the price increase from Bitcoin’s 2015 low to its 2017 high. This period lasted roughly 1064 days (this may vary depending on the exchange data you use, but it’s a very accurate estimate). From then, the bear market lasted until the low on December 15th, 2018. This created a 363-day top-to-bottom window. The market then spent months recovering, but the main capitulation low had already been set.

The second reference point is the cycle that began after the December 2018 low and lasted until the 2021 high on November 10th. This time, it took Bitcoin 1062 days to complete the cycle (about the same as the previous cycle). From there, BTC started declining into bear market territory, which ultimately bottomed on November 21, 2022.

That took 376 days, only 13 days longer than the previous cycle. Despite different macro conditions, different market participants, and a larger crypto ecosystem, the timing was alarmingly close.

Here’s where it gets interesting. From the low in 2022 to the high achieved on October 6th, 2025, it’s around 1051 days – more or less the same. Following that logic and using a historical average of 363 to 376 days from top to bottom, the current bear market might reach its lowest point between October 4 and October 17, 2026. Make of this what you will.

This is a Window, not a Prediction

Now, this kind of cycle analysis could be useful, but it should never be treated as a guaranteed forecast – previous results do not promise future ones. Bitcoin’s future bottom will heavily depend on liquidity, interest rates, ETF flows, regulation, miner behavior, leverage, broader risk appetite, geopolitics, and more. A major macro shock could accelerate the decline, while strong institutional demand could easily shorten it.

Still, this pattern is worth watching. It gives some sort of a framework. If Bitcoin tops around October 2025, history suggests the most important low may not arrive in the next few days or weeks. It may take another few months of correction and eventual capitulation before the conditions reset.

For now, the historical model points to one key window: October 2026.

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