A closely watched analyst has argued that XRP may drop to $0.70-$0.90.
However, this is not a call for a crash but rather a call for patience, as the market watcher claims that the accumulation base could trigger a powerful rally for the token.
The Base Pattern Taking Shape
The popular analyst ChartNerd posted his read on X Friday morning:
“XRP is tracing a classic multi-year base pattern,” they wrote. “BASE 1 and BASE 2 are complete, with a potential BASE 3 forming in the $0.90/$0.70 area ahead of multi-year resistance.”
According to him, these accumulation bases have historically powered violent rallies, but his view is that a third base needs to form and complete before any real breakout attempt has legs.
Getting there from XRP’s current price of $1.43 would mean a drop of somewhere between 35% and 50%, and that’s the uncomfortable part of the thesis.
What makes it less straightforward than a simple bearish read is what is happening under the surface. Analyst Amr Taha published data today showing XRP’s spot buyers and future traders have been pulling in opposite directions.
All-exchange spot CVD climbed from $1.08 billion on April 2 to $1.39 billion by April 24. Meanwhile, Binance perpetual CVD dropped from around -$65 million in March to roughly -$392 million over the same stretch.
It means spot buyers absorbing supply while futures traders pile into shorts. Taha called it “a spot accumulation versus futures reset setup” rather than a clean bearish signal, and that framing seems right.
Binance open interest data also published today puts XRP’s Z-score at around 0.96, modestly above its 30-day average of $421 million but nowhere near the overcrowded levels that tend to precede sharp liquidation events.
Where the Price Actually Sits
At the time of writing, CoinGecko data showed XRP was up about 1% in the last 24 hours and basically flat on the week, having gained just 0.1%.
However, for those looking for any kind of silver lining, the broader market is down 0.7% over the same period, meaning XRP is marginally holding its own.
Meanwhile, after topping out at $3.65 in July 2025, the Ripple token now sits about 61% below that level while dipping 34% from where it was 12 months ago.
With the above picture in mind, analyst Ali Martinez argued that whale accumulation, shrinking exchange supply, and a fresh SuperTrend buy signal are pointing toward a trend reversal, with $1.90 as his target if XRP closes above $1.55.
ChartNerd is working on a longer clock, but the two views can coexist, since a retrace into the $0.70-$0.90 zone does not rule out what Martinez is watching for but might just delay it.
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