Bitcoin has managed to recover some ground from the early July drop to a multi-year low and now fights for $65,000. On the more macro scale, though, the asset has flashed a signal that preceded one of the most impressive rallies in its recent history.
Can it do it again now?
BTC to $500K and Beyond?
The signal in question was the formation of a bullish RSI divergence on the weekly chart, as outlined by popular analyst Ali Martinez. It emerges when the asset’s price and its 14-period Relative Strength Index on a weekly chart move in the opposite direction, suggesting that the underlying trend is losing momentum.
According to Martinez, the last time this happened was four years ago during the 2022 bear cycle. At the time, BTC bottomed at around $16,000 before the next expansion phase began, culminating three years later in a new peak of over $126,000.
The subsequent correction since that October peak has driven the cryptocurrency south to around $60,000, where the bullish RSI divergence appeared. History is no indicator of future price performance, but it’s still fun to speculate that if bitcoin were to mimic its 2022-2025 rally precisely, it would skyrocket to over half a million dollars per unit.
The Right and Wrong Strategies
Fellow analyst Altcoin Sherpa noted that the 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart had flipped for the first time in months, but BTC still needs to reclaim $65,000 to signal that the dip and bottom are in during this cycle.
Michaël van de Poppe spoke about when and how investors should consider (re-)entering the bitcoin ecosystem. He argued that many expect another leg down and a drop to $40,000 in the next few months and want to buy there. However, he asked what their plan B would be if that didn’t happen.
“Most of those people will then be buying back at $90,000 per bitcoin. That, to me, is a stupid strategy to go for.”
Instead, he believes buying at current levels is such a “phenomenal opportunity” that investors should take advantage of and wait 2-5 years to fully enjoy the potential price appreciation. And, if BTC indeed dips to $40,000, that would be an “even extra opportunity,” but he wouldn’t rely blindly on such a scenario.
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