XRP posted a fresh decline on Tuesday as it struggled to climb past $1.31. While modest gains pushed it above $1.35 last week, the asset faced a sharp pullback later, which erased those advances. Monday’s recovery also lacked strong follow-through.

New data suggests that XRP’s long-term average trader returns have never been this low since 2022.

XRP Market Pain Peaks

Santiment said that wallets active on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) over the past year are sitting on average losses of around 41%. This puts XRP’s MVRV at its lowest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022.

According to the analysis, such deeply negative returns point to reduced risk levels for new or additional XRP purchases, as market participants are already experiencing heavy drawdowns, reflecting what Santiment describes as “blood in the streets” conditions across the market.

Despite what appears to be a potential opportunity, transaction patterns demonstrate participants are actively pulling liquidity from exchanges. Over the past month, deposit transactions have trailed behind withdrawals, which has led to a clear net outflow from the exchange. The imbalance shows more assets leaving the platform than entering it during this period. While outflows continued, the overall number of transactions has dropped sharply. This points to slowing activity across the market, indicating a phase of stagnation.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst ‘CasiTrades’ stated that XRP is showing signs of exhaustion rather than strength as it continues to trade within a defined range. She highlighted that multiple timeframes still point to a downside trajectory. The projected path includes an initial move lower toward the $1.13 level, followed by a brief relief bounce, and then a continuation toward the $1.08 zone, identified as macro 0.786 support.

After another period of consolidation, the analyst expects a further decline toward $0.87, near the macro 0.854 support level.

ETF Demand Weakens

Spot XRP ETFs saw their first negative month in March since debuting in November, as geopolitical tensions rattled markets. Rising oil prices fueled uncertainty and drove investors away from risk assets. This resulted in around $31 million being withdrawn from XRP ETFs over the month. The trend has carried into April, as early data showed continued outflows.

In the first week alone, investors pulled about $1.25 million.

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