Vitalik Buterin earned around $70,000 last year by trading on the prediction market Polymarket, using a principal of approximately $440,000.
Buterin explained that his profit came from what he described as an “anti-insanity mode” strategy, which involves identifying markets driven by extreme irrationality and betting against unlikely outcomes.
Politics and Tech Bets
According to the Ethereum co-founder, many Polymarket participants lose money because they get swept up in panic or hype, whereas he deliberately looks for situations where sentiment becomes detached from reality. He cited examples such as markets speculating that Donald Trump could win the Nobel Peace Prize, or predictions made during periods of severe economic fear that the US dollar would collapse to zero within a year.
When such scenarios gain traction, Buterin said he typically bets that these “crazy things won’t happen,” a method, which he believes, has usually proven profitable. When asked about the types of markets he focuses on, Buterin said his activity is mainly centered on politics and technology. He also added that these areas often see the strongest emotional reactions and most exaggerated expectations.
Buterin also explained that markets dominated by irrational predictions tend to offer the clearest opportunities for disciplined traders willing to take the opposite view. Interestingly, this is not Buterin’s first success with prediction markets. During the 2020 US presidential election cycle, he disclosed making roughly $58,000 from election-related bets, despite not being a frequent Polymarket user at the time.
Around that period, Buterin publicly praised prediction markets as an emerging tool for collective truth-seeking, describing them as “social epistemic technologies” that encourage “open participation” rather than reliance on “pre-selected elites.”
Polymarket Stats
Messari’s recent findings show that Polymarket no longer dominates the prediction market space. On June 1, 2025, the blockchain-based prediction platform held the largest share of open interest at 57%. By December 31, leadership had moved to Kalshi, which captured a 42% share with $355.9 million in open interest.
Polymarket followed closely with 41%, while Opinion ranked third with a 15% share. Despite increased competition, Polymarket’s activity remains broadly diversified. In December 2025, sports, politics, and crypto markets each recorded more than $1.2 billion in trading volume, which indicated that the platform does not depend on a single sector.
Culture emerged as its fastest-growing category, as monthly volume rose 687% between June and December to $264.3 million. However, usage remains highly concentrated, as a small group of wallets accounts for the majority of total trading volume.
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