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Veronique de Rugy: Libertarianism isn’t anarchism, Social Security’s intergenerational unfairness demands reform, and the zero-sum mindset threatens globalization | Macro Musings

Libertarianism includes a spectrum of beliefs about the role of the state. Classical liberalism supports a minimal state with accountability and predictability. Social Security's intergenerational transfer system is considered unfair…

Continue ReadingVeronique de Rugy: Libertarianism isn’t anarchism, Social Security’s intergenerational unfairness demands reform, and the zero-sum mindset threatens globalization | Macro Musings

Tyler Muir: Financial crises amplify asset price drops, why recovery dynamics differ from economic activity, and the rise of populism post-crisis | Macro Musings

Financial crises have a more profound impact on asset markets than ordinary recessions. Asset prices drop more during financial crises due to an extra risk premium channel. Asset markets typically…

Continue ReadingTyler Muir: Financial crises amplify asset price drops, why recovery dynamics differ from economic activity, and the rise of populism post-crisis | Macro Musings

Scott Sumner: Nominal GDP is key to understanding macro policy errors | Macro Musings

Nominal GDP is a crucial indicator for understanding macroeconomic policy mistakes. Fiscal policy and supply shocks are often overrated in their impact on nominal GDP growth. The earlier, simpler monetary…

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Richard Berner: Liquidity fragility threatens financial stability | Macro Musings

The OFR has a unique ability to collect financial data, filling gaps other agencies cannot. Transitioning from LIBOR to SOFR involved integrating various short-term money market rates. Global liquidity is…

Continue ReadingRichard Berner: Liquidity fragility threatens financial stability | Macro Musings

Per Åsberg Sommar: Historical data from the Riksbank is vital for macroeconomic theories, Sweden’s shift to a 2% inflation target, and the impact of larger economies on small open economies | Macro Musings

Historical data from the Riksbank is crucial for testing macroeconomic theories. The Riksbank formally adopted a 2% inflation target in 1995 after allowing the Swedish krona to float. Flexible inflation…

Continue ReadingPer Åsberg Sommar: Historical data from the Riksbank is vital for macroeconomic theories, Sweden’s shift to a 2% inflation target, and the impact of larger economies on small open economies | Macro Musings

Martha Gimbel: Delayed economic policies demand long-term thinking | Macro Musings

Long-term economic policies often have delayed effects that are not visible in short-term analyses. Certain economic policies are implemented for reasons beyond driving economic growth. The lack of comprehensive public…

Continue ReadingMartha Gimbel: Delayed economic policies demand long-term thinking | Macro Musings

Laurence Bristow: The Australian dollar’s significant misalignment with fundamentals, RBA’s flexible inflation targeting between 2% to 3%, and the shift to a demand-driven reserve system | Macro Musings

The Australian dollar is currently trading away from its fundamental value, indicating potential misalignment with economic indicators. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) targets a flexible inflation range of 2%…

Continue ReadingLaurence Bristow: The Australian dollar’s significant misalignment with fundamentals, RBA’s flexible inflation targeting between 2% to 3%, and the shift to a demand-driven reserve system | Macro Musings

Dan Awrey: Legacy banking faces disruption from digital payment demand | Macro Musings

Historical banking practices have created a path dependency that affects modern payment systems. Good money is defined by law and institutions, while good payments are defined by technology and governance…

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Aaron Klein: The Fed’s payment system is stuck in the past | Macro Musings

The Fed's development of new payment systems has been significantly delayed. Payment system improvements by the Fed are often reactive rather than proactive. Current payment systems operate like batch processes,…

Continue ReadingAaron Klein: The Fed’s payment system is stuck in the past | Macro Musings